The last time a decrease in home prices on the island of Montreal was recorded was at the beginning of 2023.
At that time, a sharp rise in loan rates, inflation, and geopolitical instability due to the war in Ukraine hit the real estate market. Today, the reasons are different, explains Charles Brant, director of market analysis at APCIQ (Association of Professional Realtors of Quebec). Although rates have decreased, prices have risen so much that the effect has been devalued.
In November 2024, the median price of single-family homes in the metropolitan area was $800,500. A year later — $776,750 (APCIQ data). In Toronto and Vancouver, the decline has been ongoing for a long time, and according to Royal LePage’s forecasts for 2026, it will continue (also CREA and RE/MAX).
Slowdown or correction?
Brant notes: we compare with the peak at the end of 2024. “In 2025, the trend will continue. There may still be downsides in the next three months. The purchasing power of households is increasingly distant from the reality of the market.” Prices are stabilizing, but without a sharp turnaround — demand is strong.
Marc Lefrancois (Royal LePage Tendance): “Montreal will return to averages with the suburbs.” The island has suffered from an outflow to the northern crown and Rive-Sud. Luxury weakened in the last quarter. In the center, inventories have increased due to immigration and restrictions on purchases by non-residents — condos linger for a long time.
“The center of Montreal is a buyer’s market,” emphasizes Brant.
Overheating beyond the island
Royal LePage: all of Quebec outside Montreal is expecting growth in 2026 — an “exception” in the Canadian market. Reasons: affordable prices, less vulnerability to trade with the U.S. (in Ontario, the auto industry).
Quebec City leads nationally (for the second year): supply shortage + demand. Among the top 5: Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke will soar due to price/quality.
