After four years of uncertainty — high rates, political dramas, and trade wars — the Canadian real estate market is on a steady path to recovery. Home prices have stabilized in most regions, even decreasing in expensive cities, supply is increasing, and mortgage rates have returned to a healthy level of 3–4%.
However, many buyers are still waiting for the “perfect moment,” missing the window of opportunity, writes the president of Royal LePage in a fresh forecast for 2026.
“The market is moving forward — quietly but surely,” emphasizes the expert. Realtors note the return of young families: “The recession is behind us, it’s time to build.” In recent years, cheap mortgages (below 3%) have become an anomaly of the crises of 2008 and COVID, while current rates are the norm of a balanced economy. The Bank of Canada does not plan to sharply reduce them to avoid inflation.
Price Forecast: Montreal Stable, Quebec City Leads
Royal LePage expects an average price increase of only 1% nationwide in 2026:
- Single-family homes: +2%.
- Condos: -2.5% (due to a decrease in immigration and students, which will reduce rental demand).
Regional Highlights:
- Greater Montreal: +5% — demand is strong despite the correction on the island.
- Quebec City: +12% — Canada’s leader for the second consecutive year (supply shortage + infrastructure projects).
- Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax: moderate growth due to affordability.
- Toronto and Vancouver: single-digit percentage declines — an opportunity for the premium segment.
- Gatineau: homes +2%, condos -3% (pressure from Ottawa).
For newcomers — a rare window: less competition, more inventory, stability.
Supply is Growing, but Shortage is Chronic
CMHC reports record construction starts in 2025 due to zoning. However, Toronto and Vancouver are slowing down due to project cancellations. The author warns: “We cannot relax — the structural deficit requires years of disciplined building.” Duplexes and townhouses are needed — a balance of density and affordability, as seen in Edmonton and Calgary.
Policy Paves the Way
The stability of the federal government (trust has increased) — an opportunity for reforms. Build Canada Homes (the campaign slogan) — a step forward, but success depends on execution. “The market has done its part, now it’s the government’s turn.”
