The Canadian housing market ended 2025 with a cooling: sales in December fell by 2.7%, and the MLS HPI index dropped by 0.3%, although some regions continued to show impressive price growth.
Quebec stands out against the backdrop of decline
Unlike Ontario and British Columbia, where prices are falling due to oversupply and affordability crisis, major markets in Quebec have surged: the annual growth of the MLS HPI was 5.9–17%, with monthly jumps in December. Québec City leads with +17% y/y and +3.2% m/m, demonstrating resilience despite national headwinds such as economic uncertainty and a weak labor market.
Regional growth leaders
- Québec City outpaces the country, confirming its reputation as the “most resilient” market.
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba are holding strong: +6.2–6.9% y/y in HPI, thanks to a balance of supply and demand.
- The Atlantic provinces are mostly growing, while Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto are sinking under the weight of inventory, strengthening buyers’ negotiating power.
Reasons and RBC forecast
Robert Hogue (RBC Economics) links the national decline to affordability challenges, trade wars, and a slowdown in immigration, which interrupted the recovery after the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts. The total volume of resale transactions for the year decreased by 1.9%. Forecast: moderate growth in the Prairies, Québec, and the Atlantic in 2025–2026, while national prices drift down; a full rebound depends on restoring confidence in the context of low cyclical rates.
